Severe Weather Discussion for June 26 – July 2, 2006.
– Temperatures near normal much of the week, warming some by the weekend.
– Chance of thunderstorms during the week, but not a great one.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Longwave pattern progged to deamplify this week with mid-level flow weakening over Oklahoma. This process is noted at current time by the rather slow movement of MCS activity. GFS has flipped from prior solutions and is now rather dry for this week. Not sure the best course of action, but given the current drought will stick with dry and warm.
Current normal high for OKC is 90F and believe temperatures during much of the week will be near this mark. If the 12z GFS is correct with the 588dm ridge building into the region later this week, temperatures would go up a few degrees. Do not see any triple digits temperatures for at least the next week.
Some MCS activity may make it into the state mid week, but after that looks dry.
Tropics continue to be quiet, which is normal this time of year.
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