Severe Weather Discussion for June 19 – 25, 2006.
– Hot the next few days, with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s.
– Chance of thunderstorms during the week for northern Oklahoma and south Texas. Better chance of storms for the region this weekend.
– Summer starts this week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Bad choice on the 5% severe last week, I got busted on that one. Lots of severe weather for the region over the weekend, with power outages across parts of Oklahoma. Houston got nailed this morning with 10.5 inches of rain in some areas.
500mb pattern will not change that much, relative to the past few weeks. 588dm ridge will remain near the area and currently is progged to move west during the week. Early on this will provide for rather warm temperatures and guess what, much above normal, currently 88F in OKC. Mesonet at 2pm is showing low 90s across central OK with near 100F along the Red River in SW OK. NWS and model data indicate that this will be the trend through Wednesday. If the 12z models are correct, the ridge may move far enough west to take a few degrees off the temperature in central/eastern Oklahoma by Thursday.
By Friday a synoptic cold front is progged by the GFS to move into northern Oklahoma and through the area during the weekend as northwest and northerly flow develops. With the prior runs rather consistent and the mid-level pattern favoring such an event, will go with the current progs on frontal passage around Saturday. Of course this won’t mean much of a temperature change unless we get some thunderstorms and associated debris clouds. OUN discussions point at MCS activity this weekend and that certainly seems like a good idea. So, expect temperatures to vary on Friday based on cloud cover with more of a general cool down to near normal Saturday and Sunday. The 25% severe covers activity expected this weekend and at this time expect only low-end severe weather.
Much of Oklahoma got much needed rain this past weekend with 1-3 inches common. More may be on the way this coming weekend. Currenlty OKC is 5.50 inches below normal for the year, much better than I thought we’d be.
Little noted in the tropics right now and expect a quiet week. Still very early in the season. Summer starts on Wednesday, but we already know that one.
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