Severe Weather Discussion for June 5 – 11, 2006.
– Active severe weather day expected across parts of northern Oklahoma late tonight. Particularly damaging winds are the primary threat, but hail to 1.5 inches is also possible.
– Warm and hot starting on Tuesday. Temperatures above normal all week.
– 10 days remaining in storm season 2006, if you can call it such.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 65%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
SPC has a moderate risk up and OUN is using enhanced wording for tonight. Given obvious shortwve trof and available instability, severe MCS looks like a good bet. Location is very tough at this point as 50 miles makes the difference for central Oklahoma. Current bet is for the severe MCS is to go just east of the OKC area, around the eastern side of the mid-level ridge. Tough to call on exact location but somewhere in central/eastern Oklahoma will likely see thunderstorms tonight. Best chance for the nasty winds will be in northern Oklahoma with 65mph possible farther south. However, as noted on the location this area may be modified later today. Another issue is last night’s non-severe MCS that moved across eastern Oklahoma. Debris clouds and such are keeping temperatures from warming with mid 90s noted out west and low 70s in southeast Oklahoma. Regional RADAR indicates that the MCS shouldn’t impeded moisture all that much given size and strength. Severe Thunderstorm prob
is set for the expected medium-end event tonight and is < 5% the remainder of the week.
After today 00z/12z GFS builds in the 588dm ridge, which should end precip chances for the region. Little to mention due to the expected mid-level ridge and associated hot conditions. See some hints at the 594dm ridge and ohh man if that happens a month early. Active weather looks to continue north of the region, which is typical this time of year. Temperatures should be in the 90s all week, well above the normal of 84F in OKC.
For storm season 2006, 16 tornadoes have occurred with the monthly breakdown:
June: 0 (so far)
Last tornado in the state: 05/10/2006 – Okmulgee County near Beggs.
Tropical Storm Seaon is underway and little to mention right now. TPC is monitoring an area in the Carribean, but little development is expected.by