Severe Weather Discussion for May 29 – June 4, 2006.
Valid: May 29, 2006.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday. Small chance of storms later in the week.
– Temperatures will remain above normal, but the edge should be taken off Thursday, with a warm-up late in the week.
– 17 days left in storm season, if you can call it such.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 35%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Southern stream trough will remain out west a few more days and head on east late Wednesday. Around this time a ridge is progged to develop across the western U.S. Shwoers and thunderstorms will remain possible across Oklahoma and Texas the next few days as southwest flow continues across the region. Model progged instability paramters remain supportive of organized convection. However, convection has struggled to maintain itself the past few nights and tonight is the same story. Current radar shows storms in NW OK looking rather weak, albeit some severe. However, doubt there will be a big MCS with this activity. Time will tell.
More likely chance for widespread storms may occur late Tuesday into Wednesday as upper system starts to lift east and frontal boundary gets a stronger southward push. Activity is expected to remain on the low-end of the scale and SPC slight risks look good.
Temperatures will remain above normal all week (currently 83F in OKC). Temperatures should cool in the 80s Thursday – Friday behind synoptic front currently in Kansas. Said front should move through Oklahoma late Wednesday as the pattern change starts.
What happens into the weekend has a lot to do with the ridge placement and how strong the front ultimately is. If the ridge sets up just west of Oklahoma we may see MCS activity each night. A little to the east and it is going to get toasty.
No medium or high end events noted on model progs for this week.
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