Severe Weather Discussion for May 22 – 28, 2006.
– Much above normal temperatures this week.
– Chance of thunderstorms, albeit slight.
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– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: 10%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
In general the atmosphere across Oklahoma and Texas will be dominated by a mid-level 582dm ridge. Much of Texas will periodically be under a 588dm ridge. Late May is ending up more like mid-July with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s across the region. The positive side of this is lack of moisture, but that also hurts relative to rain chances.
Temperatures will be the main story this week as highs continue ten or so degrees above normal (currently 80F in OKC). This is a bit of a break from the upper 90s/low 100s seen Fri/Sat.
Shortwave trof progged to move out of the western U.S. on Tuesday may initiate convection across KS/NE/SD. SPC has a slight risk up for this area. There is a very slight chance that storms will develop in Oklahoma, but not zero. The most likely area is northwest Oklahoma as most other areas should be sufficiently capped. Any storms that do develop should become organized with severe weather possible. Threat continues on Wednesday as heights fall a little across the region. However, progged speed and directional shear would tend to limit the organized severe threat. Best activity would be northeast of Oklahoma per SPC Day 3. Some activity in central and northeast Oklahoma is possible along decaying cold front.
Things appear quiet Thursday and Friday as the area is under the influence of another mid-level ridge. The weekend provides some chance for severe thunderstorms, but once again this is a very small chance. The main reason for including it in this discussion is the potential for part of northern Okahoma to be impacted. As with last week will handle any surprises with special discussions. However, the main thing this week should be warm temperatures.
For more information, weather news, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.