For those of us that chase tornadoes in the southern plains, March 15 – June 15 is commonly considered chase season. This year has been rather strange with very little activity in Oklahoma. In fact, there have been 16 tornadoes in Okahoma this year, 2 – F3, 4 – F1, and the remainder F0. Backtrack: http://www.spegweb.com/tornado/2006.php.
There are about 25 days left in chase season, which can start a little before March 15th and last a little past June 15th. 2005 is a good example as there was decent activity a few days after the 15th. However, as we get late in June it becomes a losing battle as the jet streams translate north and the southern plains are influenced by mid-level ridging.
2006 may have never started for Oklahoma, although two days did occur with active weather (March 12th and April 24th). Texas saw a lot of activity in late April into early May with Waco experiencing a tornado April 28th and then one week later another tornado on May 5th. Certainly not excluding the F3 that hit north of Dallas and killed three people on May 9th.
Numerical model output indicates little of chance of storms or even rain for Oklahoma and Texas during the next seven days. This could certainly change as models aren’t always right. For now the going hot and dry forecast seems to be the norm. Memorial Day Weekend has been known to provide some storms for Oklahoma, tough to know this year.by