Subject: Weekly Severe Weather Discussion
Severe Weather Discussion for May 15 – 21, 2006.
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– Slightly below normal temperatures today and tomorrow, warming to above
normal for the weekend.
– Little to no chance for rain.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Longwave trof/closed low continues across the eastern U.S. with a blocking
pattern in place just off the east coast. CPC blocking index continues to
show rather strong blocking in this area, although it has weakened some.
Models all agree that this low will remain in-place the next few days and as
it slowly moves east. By Thursday it should clear the east coast as a
western U.S. 582dm ridge builds over the region. This will allow
temperatures to warm into the 80s.
After Saturday models diverge on what the atmosphere will do next. Given
that 2006 has been a rather quiet storm season, I’m not that encouraged by
the recent GFS progs. Especially since the ECMWF maintains a blocking
pattern. However, it is rare that a blocking pattern continues for more
than a few weeks, as seen at current time. The GFS has been consistent the
past three runs in developing a western U.S. trof around the 22nd. While this is
certainly within a better confidence time period, I’ve seen that several
times the past two weeks. For now I’m not going to bite and just continue
The big eastern U.S. low put a rather huge dent in the Gulf, however time of
year would certainly argue for rapid recovery as we are approaching the max
sun angle. Either way, I’m not going to get into too much detail beyond
this forecast period. Any issues early next week can be handled with
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